|
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Jul23.html http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Jul23.html Mitt Romney has decided to
convert
the $45 million loan he gave his campaign into a gift. As a shrewd businessman, he knows the chance of
getting donors to give money to a multimillionaire former governor who is not running for office is
pretty darn close to zero,
so why try? His attempt to buy the presidency didn't work. However, by formally abandoning any attempt
to recoup his money, he is signaling John McCain that he is willing to focus all his fundraising efforts
on helping
McCain. If McCain would be willing to name him as Vice President. Romney would no doubt humbly accept.
Is the presidency a steal at a mere $45 million? Probably. Is the Vice Presidency worth $45 million?
John Nance Garner famously
didn't think so.
Real Clear Politics has an
article
about changes in party registration since the 2004 election.
The Democrats have gained 700,000 people and the Republicans have lost 1 million in the 29
states that register voters by party. Here are the numbers im some important states (rounded to the nearest thousand).
| Arizona |
Bush by 211,000 |
21,000 |
-10,000 |
31,000 |
| Colorado |
Bush by 100,000 |
-47,000 |
-108,000 |
61,000 |
| Florida |
Bush by 381,000 |
8,000 |
-13,000 |
21,000 |
| Iowa |
Bush by 10,000 |
68,000 |
-27,000 |
95,000 |
| Nevada |
Bush by 22,000 |
16,000 |
-44,000 |
60,000 |
| New Hampshire |
Kerry by 9,000 |
36,000 |
2,000 |
34,000 |
| New Mexico |
Bush by 6,000 |
-7,000 |
-5,000 |
-2,000 |
| North Carolina |
Bush by 435,000 |
58,000 |
29,000 |
29,000 |
| Oregon |
Kerry by 76,000 |
33,000 |
-92,000 |
125,000 |
| Pennsylvania |
Kerry by 144,000 |
267,000 |
-221,000 |
488,000 |
Two states stand out: Iowa and Nevada. In Iowa, Bush won by 10,000 votes
and the Democrats have netted 95,000 new voters. In Nevada, Bush won by 22,000
votes and the Democrats have picked up 60,000 new voters. These numbers alone
suggest that the Democrats have a good shot at picking up Iowa (7 electoral votes)
and Nevada (5 electoral votes). If Obama gets these plus the Kerry states, he
has 264 electoral votes, 6 shy of the 270 he needs. If McCain holds all the Bush
states except Iowa and Nevada, he wins, but he can't afford to lose another swing state.
If he loses New Mexico, too, the electoral college will be tied at 269-269 and the
new House picks the President, with each state having one vote.
Click here for full story |